Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
